The Memphis Safe Task Force (MSTF) has been the source of much debate since its mobilization in Memphis in September of last year. Even though violent crime numbers were decreasing prior to the task force, the most common narrative is that the MSTF has reduced crime by more and at a faster pace, though that is speculation. Unscientific surveys report that most residents, even many who were wary of the National Guard presence, support the additional federal and state law enforcement resources.
As the MSTF touted its 10,000th arrest this week, it is also true that questions about the operation persist and transparency is lacking. Here are 4 ways the recent data release fails to tell the whole story.
1. More than 80% of the arrests appear to be non-violent
The U.S. Marshals Service release states that the MSTF has made 10,017 arrests. Ninety-two were for homicide, and 105 were for sex offenses. Those can be classified, generally speaking, as violent offenses. Then the numbers become murky. For example, 962 have been arrested for “firearms violations.” That could be a felon in possession of a firearm or someone possessing a stolen firearm. Neither is inherently violent. One thousand twelve were arrested for “controlled substances.” Also, not violent. If you add up all of the arrest categories shared in the release and assume they are all violent, still more than 80% of the arrests are for nonviolent offenses.
2. How many of those arrests are immigration related?
Data regarding the number of immigration arrests stopped flowing some time ago, but community activists and reporters know they are still happening. Since ICE is one of the agencies included in the MSTF, are immigration arrests part of that 10,017, or is there a separate number?
3. Of the 1012 arrests for controlled substances, how many are for cannabis or less than an amount qualifying for intent to distribute?
Controlled substances are a broad category of drugs regulated in part by whether they have any medical value. There is nothing in the released data or reporting that shows how many of these arrests are for marijuana versus fentanyl, heroin, or cocaine. There is also no shared data to say if the amounts were for personal use or large enough to warrant an arrest for intent to distribute.
4. What is the status of 154 missing children today?
From the beginning, supporters, mostly politicians, have touted that this number or that number of children have been “saved.” A couple of months into the taskforce’s work, the language changed to “located.” Throughout the operation, there has been no indication as to why the children were missing in the first place, if they were taken, exploited, or exited a neglectful and abusive situation. Most importantly, are they in a safe place now, and who is ensuring that is the case?
The MSTF will not remain in place for years, and local authorities will be responsible for developing and implementing a public safety strategy that does not include significant federal law enforcement resources. To the extent a future public safety effort attempts to replicate some of the tactics of the MSTF, public buy-in may be shaky. The effectiveness of the MSTF will always be debated and anecdotal, unless there is more data transparency from the start of the initiative until the finish.