By now, perhaps most of us have determined the new congressional district in which we reside following the legislature’s rash mid-cycle redistricting. The gerrymandering split the only majority Black and Democratic district in the state into thirds and packaged the parts with Republican-heavy rural and suburban counties. There is no doubt that Republicans in the legislature fashioned the districts to elect GOP congress members, but it is equally clear they failed to factor in the campaign of Columbia, Tennessee, Mayor Chaz Molder.
Molder is the leading Democratic candidate seeking the opportunity to unseat Christian Nationalist Republican Congressman Andy Ogles. As Molder took the “stump” in the packed house of Memphis City Councilman Jeff Warren earlier this week, he was introduced by Congressman Steve Cohen, who is retiring after the legislature devoured the Memphis district he has effectively represented for nearly 20 years. While Cohen enthusiastically supports Molder, the two are quite different in their backgrounds and styles, which benefits Democrats’ chances to win in the 17-county, largely rural 5th district.
Memphis
A graduate of the University of Memphis Cecil C. Humphreys School of Law, Molder has ties to the Bluff City and a genuine appreciation for the community’s history and culture. In his remarks, he rightly stressed the importance of constituent service in a portion of the city represented by Cohen, and previously by Harold Ford, Jr., and Harold Ford, Sr., all of whom are known for their competence and enthusiasm in addressing constituent concerns. This Memphis portion of the district includes North Memphis and South Memphis, which contain some of the poorest zip codes in the state. Molder also spoke about the state’s failure to expand Medicaid, recognizing how the decision has left many of the most vulnerable without health insurance. He also stressed the need to lower costs. Politically and practically, Molder’s understanding of Memphis’ needs is key to both winning and serving well.
Rural West Tennessee
Molder has a not-so-secret weapon in former Democratic legislator Craig Fitzhugh, who was the Minority Leader and currently serves as Mayor of Ripley, Tennessee. Fitzhugh is Molder’s father-in-law and is widely regarded throughout the state, but especially in rural West Tennessee. It’s notable that Fitzhugh was an ardent opponent of school vouchers and a staunch supporter of public education. His daughter, Molder’s wife Elizabeth, is a former public school teacher. While the implementation of the voucher program was a state-level initiative, unhappy public school teachers and parents will care about Molder’s connection to public education.
Molder also speaks the language of rural Tennesseans, having been raised in the once largely rural Maury County. He is emphasizing his support for farmers, tax cuts for working people, and Tennessee values, like decency and integrity, an obvious contrast with Ogles.
Rural and Suburban Middle
Molder is a two-term Mayor, who defeated a two-term incumbent Republican in a Middle Tennessee community that heavily backed Donald Trump. He can tout a record of eight balanced budgets with no property tax increase, which is a campaign talking point most MAGA candidates would envy. Just 40 miles South of Nashville and adjacent to wealthy Williamson County, Molder’s city of Columbia has experienced substantial growth and the challenges that come with it. Effectively serving as mayor requires solid relationships and cooperation with other local leaders within your home county as well as in communities across county lines.
Fundraising
Defeating an incumbent always requires robust fundraising ability. As of the most recent financial disclosures. Molder had raised $1.8 million and had cash on hand of $1.2 million. Ogles had raised $440,000 with only $85,000 on hand. Since unveiling the new district configuration, Molder’s fundraising momentum seems to have increased with multiple recent events in the Memphis portion of the district.
Andy Ogles
If one must run against an incumbent, it would be hard to conceive of one more vulnerable than Andy Ogles. Yet, MAGA’s justification of corruption, abuse of power, indecency, and even assault for its candidates, including President Trump, means one can no longer assume that someone with Ogles’ record would be considered unfit for office. Nevertheless, Ogles’ escapades provide the contrast a challenger like Molder must have to win when the district is designed to lean in the incumbent’s favor.
Appearing to follow the lead of disgraced and ousted Congressman George Santos, Ogles has egregiously embellished his resume, claiming to be an economist and former law enforcement personnel working to stop international human trafficking. Both claims have been proven false.
Ogles was investigated by the House Ethics Committee and the FBI for falsely claiming to have loaned his campaign $320,000. The FBI executed a search warrant for his emails and cell phone, but President Trump recently ended the investigation.
In another incident, Ogles raised approximately $25,000 to create a burial garden for stillborn babies, including his son. The garden was never built, and no memorial elements were erected, but Ogles has refused to say where the funds are or how they were spent.
Electoral Climate
Tennessee is not immune to the national malaise associated with the Trump Administration. While Trump’s approval ratings in Tennessee are above 50%, they are a far cry from the 30-point margin he enjoyed in the 2024 election. Polling across the country indicates that Democrats are more motivated for the midterm elections and that independents are sour on Trump and leaning more toward Democrats. Grocery and gas prices are high for everyone in the state, including Republicans,
Conclusion
Molder needs to win the Democratic primary, of course, though it seems unlikely he will lose at this stage. Then, from August to the November general election is a lifetime in a political campaign, so circumstances could change. However, Molder’s impressive credentials, meaningful connections across the district, superior fundraising ability, and a sincere message of serving for the benefit of others elevate the District 5 race to the most interesting and winnable by a Democrat in the state.