In a post to social media earlier this week, I analyzed two recent polls making the rounds among Tennessee political operatives. One poll conducted by a Democratic firm surveyed voters in Congressional District 9. The other was conducted on behalf of a right-leaning think tank and focused on the Governor’s race.
My honest and experienced analysis of the polls raised the ire of some supporters of Democratic nominees Jerri Green and Justin Pearson. This was despite the fact I said nothing critical of either candidate or their campaign operations, and I have been highly critical of their opponents Senator Marsha Blackburn and State Senator Brent Taylor, respectively.
Here is my breakdown of the TN-9 Congressional poll, and in the words of one of my favorite musical divas, Lizzo, “Truth Hurts.”
TN-9 Poll
The Tennessee Congressional District 9 poll was conducted by Hart Research on behalf of Tennessee Rise PAC. Hart is a reputable polling firm with extensive experience. In a carefully crafted external memo, Hart reported that Justin Pearson is 4 points behind (44%) Brent Taylor (48%). Hart conducted 400 interviews for the poll fielded September 1st through the 3rd. Hart notes that self-reported voting history by respondents indicates the district voted +20 for Trump.
There is no arguing that Democratic voters appear to be more energized than Republicans and that President Trump’s dismal approval ratings are an albatross for GOP candidates in a general election, but I have some concerns about the findings of this poll.
First, 400 interviews in a 17-county district with roughly 750,000 residents is too small. The pollsters will say that it is statistically sound, and I do not disagree. However, this is a diverse and vast district in geography, income, age, and ethnicity that cannot adequately be represented with a small sample size.
The memo does not provide a margin of error for the poll, which I estimate is roughly +/-5%. If I’m correct, the numbers could be Taylor 53% to Pearson 39%, which is more reflective of the voting history of the district.
Other clues that the survey may miss the mark include data about how well each candidate is known. According to the memo, Pearson’s name ID is 67% (37% favorable, 31% unfavorable) and Taylor’s is 61% (29% favorable, 32% unfavorable). Pearson having substantial name ID is plausible in light of his national exposure as a member of the Tennessee Three and his activism in the Shelby County portion of the district. Taylor, however, had to spend hundreds of thousands on broadcast media, social media, and direct mail in the primary, which should have boosted his name ID to be equal to or greater than Pearson’s. It is possible the poll may have oversampled Shelby County residents in the Ninth who are majority Black and Democratic.
Of course, I am lacking all the data, so my hypothesis is based on 30 years of experience and intuition. That same experience and intuition lead me to believe if Taylor’s internal polling showed a race this tight, he would be doing more in terms of paid advertising to extend his lead. Some operatives would argue that it is too early to spend on media, but Taylor has the funds and the wherewithal to raise more. Allowing Pearson to close the gap as much as the poll indicates is risky. Regardless of what you may think of Taylor, he is an excellent politician.
Finally, in my years of experience, I have been involved in campaigns that encompassed all 17 of the counties in the district. I spent 18 years of my life in Lawrence County, which is the center of it. I watched my county and those that surround it shift from “yellow dog” Democrat to “dark red” Republican primarily because of a belief that the Democratic Party had gravitated too far left on the political spectrum. While there is palpable disappointment among those who supported Trump, many of them three times, it is difficult to fathom a willingness to support Pearson, who is aligned publicly with champions of progressivism like former Vice President Kamala Harris, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Senator Bernie Sanders.
Like all operatives, I understand that polls are a “snapshot in time,” and that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. But if you’re a Pearson supporter, don’t open the champagne just yet, and keep the receipt.