With only 3 days until the midterm elections, writing three separate articles about national, state, and local elections seemed inefficient. What we all want to know, after all. is who will win on Tuesday and perhaps a little insight into why our candidates will or won’t win. Regardless of my predictions, you are the ultimate decision-maker, so if you have not voted yet, exercise your right and let your voice be heard. If you are a political junkie, you can watch my analysis on WREG+ on election night.
Here are my predictions about how things will shake out on Tuesday night (more likely Wednesday and beyond).
National Landscape
Democrats continue to hold a 9-point lead on the generic ballot nationwide. While Trump has crisscrossed the nation to rally the MAGA faithful, gas and grocery prices remain high with no relief in sight. As Democratic Strategist Jame Carville famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” I expect it to be a big night for Democrats in both the House and the Senate.
U.S. House
To take control of the U.S. House, Democrats need 218 seats. They currently have 214. Republicans, generally speaking, have failed to gain and sustain much momentum. The Cook Political Report moved 12 more House races toward the Democrats today, and it has shifted numerous others over the last few weeks. The projections are that Democrats could win between 227-240 seats. I handicapped the Tennessee congressional races below:
Prediction
Democrats 235
Republicans 200
U.S. Senate
I predicted early on in the cycle that Democrats would take control of the Senate, though a much greater challenge than taking the House. At that time, Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, and Ohio, were the seats Democrats would have to win in addition to maintaining control of competitive seats in Georgia and Michigan. Since then, other states have come into play and provide Democrats with more viable options for control. Specifically, Texas, Iowa, and Kansas.
Prediction
U.S. Senate Control
Dems 52
GOP 48
Alaska
Peltola (D) 49
Sullivan (R) 47
Through the last several polls, the gap has remained relatively fixed favoring Peltola by 4. The revelation that Peltola’s team recruited another Dan Sullivan to run in an effort to confuse voters will have an impact, but I think Peltola hangs on to win. However, with the investigation and the DOJ preemptive legal filings, it could be days before the winner is decided if it’s this close.
Georgia
Ossoff (D) 55
Collins (R) 42
Ossoff is a strong candidate and one of the top fundraisers in the nation. Collins’ affiliation with white supremacists, namely his son-in-law, is the death knell for his campaign in the present environment.
Iowa
Turek (D) 49
Hinson (R) 51
This race is extremely tight, but recent momentum seems to have shifted slightly to Hinson. Trump’s recent visit may have actually helped her campaign energize Republicans.
Kansas
Hamilton (D) 52
Marshall (R) 48
Two recent polls show Hamilton in the lead. President Trump’s decision to cancel a rally there is an indication that the GOP sees that the momentum has shifted against them.
Maine
Jackson (D) 50
Collins (R) 47
Following the scandal-laden exit of progressive upstart Graham Platner, Troy Jackson picked up the mantle and has maintained a consistent narrow lead. If the polling is accurate, supporters of each are dug in.
Michigan
El Sayed (D) 50.5
Rogers (R) 49.5
Recent polling shows El Sayed with some slight momentum, but this race in particular is one where respondents may not be quite as forthcoming. The reason is that Islamophobia is rampant and being fueled nationally by the White House. Some independents and soft Republicans may quietly vote for Rogers out of fear of electing a Muslim U.S. Senator, making the race even tighter.
North Carolina
Cooper (D) 54
Whatley (R) 46
Ohio
Brown (D) 51
Husted (R) 49
Husted received a bump from Trump talking about his ass in every rally across the country, but he will end the race behind.
Texas
Talarico (D) 49
Paxton (R) 51
I would prefer to be wrong about this one. However, I have my doubts about Texans voting for a Democrat who said God is nonbinary. It may have been taken out of context or unfairly exploited, but for many Texans, it is a bridge too far, even if they prefer not to vote for a scumbag like Ken Paxton.
Tennessee Governor’s Race
This has been one of the more interesting gubernatorial campaigns in my lifetime. The swearing-in of Lamar Alexander early to prevent a corrupt Governor Ray Blanton from pardoning more hardened criminals is legendary, but it was after the election. This race includes an unpopular, ruthless frontrunner, three women, and two strong independents. There has been intrigue and scandal, and no shortage of theories about which candidates take votes from the others and if there is a viable path for anyone other than Marsha Blackburn to win.
Prediction
Blackburn (R) 43
Green (D) 36
Hatley (I) 15
Pinkston (I) 6
Despite dueling polls showing Green and Hatley faring better than my prediction, I believe the bulk of the MAGA crowd will come “home.” Though he will have spent $15-20 million by Election Day, voters have not had sufficient time to process what they really think about him and his past indiscretions. Green’s campaign has been solid but could have benefitted from an influx of cash from national Democratic PACs and donors. To both Green’s credit and detriment, she chose not to “center up” and remained true to her progressive leanings. Pinkston may be the hardest-working and most resourceful candidate, but a lack of financial resources has prevented most voters from knowing enough about her to support her.
Shelby County Congressional Races
Following the SCOTUS decision in Louisiana v. Callais, about which I have written several times, the state legislature carved up the state’s only majority Black district into three congressional districts and lumped those portions in with rural counties stretching hundreds of miles across the state. These districts were, of course, drawn to favor Republicans.
Predictions
District 5
Hatcher (R) 52
Molder (D) 48
This race has been the best opportunity for Democrats to win one of the three new congressional districts, but Molder, who has successfully positioned himself as a “blue dog,” has been hindered by the fact that scandal-plagued incumbent Andy Ogles was defeated by Hatcher in the primary. While voters are as excited about Hatcher as watching corn grow, he is Republican and not embarrassing, so I think he edges out Molder. The key to flipping this seat for Molder is heavy turnout in the Memphis portion of the district. While early voting has been robust, totals are still lagging behind 2018 numbers.
District 8
Kustoff (R) 62
Kuhn (D) 38
District 8 is the most Republican of the 3 districts. Kustoff has a large war chest, and Kuhn tapped out much of her donor base in a losing race for County Mayor in May. Kuhn is a good candidate but just lacked the financial backing to make much of a dent.
District 9
Pearson (D) 45
Taylor (R) 55
At the end of the day, racism and irrational fears of socialism will prevent Justin Pearson from winning this mostly rural district. Taylor’s campaign was rocked by revelations that he had unsolicited nude photos as recently as 2021. This may shrink Taylor’s margin and force him to spend all $1.5 million he has loaned his campaign, but GOP voters have elected Trump even in the face of numerous inappropriate sexual encounters.
