The deep red hue of the Volunteer State portends that a Republican will be the next Governor of Tennessee, just like the two previous governors. If polling and pundits are to be believed, the next person to occupy the first-floor Capitol office will be United States Senator Marsha Blackburn.
Blackburn has been a political fixture in the state since leading the charge against Republican Governor Don Sundquist’s state income tax proposal in 1999. Blackburn served as a state senator from Williamson County, then ascended to the U.S. House in 2002 and to the U.S. Senate in 2018. At times controversial, Blackburn is well-funded by special interest political action committees and Tennessee movers and shakers but also possesses a solid grassroots organization in all 95 counties of the state.
Even though Blackburn is somewhat of the juggernaut in this contest, that did not discourage Congressman John Rose from challenging Blackburn. In fact, Rose entered the race ahead of Blackburn but has failed to get much traction. Rose has a compelling story as a farmer and businessman from the Cumberland Plateau. Like Blackburn, he is a staunch Trump ally, which matters in Tennessee. What potentially levels the playing field is that Rose is a multi-millionaire who has self-funded a substantial portion of his campaign. As of the last disclosure through March 31st, Rose had loaned his campaign $5 million and raised another $1.4 million. He also held the cash-on-hand advantage over Blackburn at the time. In May, Rose launched a $1 million ad buy to introduce himself to GOP primary voters in the state.
Now, the August 6th primary is only 53 days away, and according to a May Beacon Center poll, Blackburn maintains a 53-point lead over Rose. In fairness, the poll was taken only a few days after Rose’s ad campaign began. However, with time ticking away, Rose must make the case to GOP primary voters that the governor’s race isn’t just about qualifications, but that Blackburn is undesirable. That means putting his considerable personal wealth behind a negative ad campaign. It is also possible that a “dark money” organization could do the dirty work, but whoever is going to do it must do it soon.
If Rose or his backers attack, what Blackburn baggage will they feature? With a 53-point lead, will Blackburn respond by attacking Rose or simply focus on her positives?
Blackburn Negatives
Unless there is some deep, dark secret that no previous opponents of Blackburn have uncovered, past attacks have had little impact on her supporters. Similar to President Trump in that way, her supporters become more ardent and overlook or justify her actions.
Prior to becoming state senator, Blackburn served as Executive Director of the Tennessee Film and Television Commission. Blackburn incurred travel expenses of over $40,000 in a short period. When asked to provide a copy of her expense report to then Commissioner of Economic Development, Bill Dunavant, Blackburn burned the receipts and mailed them to Dunavant with a note reading, “Copy of L.A. expense report as requested.” The excessive spending and temper-tantrum have followed Blackburn throughout her career, but voters have never seemed to care.
In 2008 and 2010, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) named Blackburn to the list of most corrupt congressional members. The designation was born from her failure to accurately report her receipts and expenses on federal campaign disclosures. Among the missteps, Blackburn funneled payments to a family-owned business. A Blackburn spokesperson called it “old news wrapped in a fundraising appeal.”
In 2014, Blackburn sponsored the Ensuring Patient Access and Ensuring Drug Enforcement Act, which was a bill written by a drug company lobbyist that limited the government’s ability to curtail narcotic shipments. CBS News and The Washington Post conducted an investigation in 2017 that demonstrated how the legislation helped worsen the opioid crisis.
None of these negatives have discouraged support among Republican primary voters in the past. While they may become part of an overall narrative about her unfitness to serve as Governor, they won’t have the intended effect. What might have an impact with GOP voters is Blackburn’s actions surrounding the 2020 election and Trump’s loss.
Just last week, President Trump said he would not endorse in the Tennessee Governor’s race, which would have been the death knell to Rose’s campaign had Trump chosen Blackburn. Despite being so close an ally to Trump that her toll records were subpoenaed by special prosecutor Jack Smith during his investigation of the January 6th Capitol Riot, Blackburn ultimately flip-flopped on her commitment not to certify the election results and voted to certify them. Rose, in contrast, signed on to formal objections to the electoral college votes of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Whether it is enough to cause a mass exodus of Blackburn’s reporters remains to be seen. It is certain the Rose campaign has polled every potential negative and will shoot its shot within the next two to three weeks. It is equally certain that Blackburn’s team has researched its negatives and has a plan to respond, which may be no response at all.
Either way, it’s about to get interesting.