Despite early morning storms, a smattering of voters in Shelby County elected party nominees from a long ballot of candidates for county offices. Bolstered by a reasonably heavy turnout on the final day of early voting, voters exceeded the average turnout in a May primary, which is about 11%, and turned out at 16%. Nevertheless, voters chose their parties’ nominees, and in most cases, the Democratic nominees likely determine the winners of the general election. From what was only a slightly more interesting election than usual because of the number of open seats created by term limits, what did we learn, and what can we expect?
Lowery Lifted to County Mayor Nominee
The race for the next Shelby County Mayor drew seven candidates in the Democratic Primary and one in the Republican Primary. County Commissioner Mickell Lowery, a frontrunner from the start, secured the nomination and likely the office. Lowery garnered an impressive 32% of the vote – “impressive” because of the 7 candidates, three had substantial financial resources, and a fourth had top-tier name recognition.
Lowery raised more than $600,000 and maintained a balance in his demeanor and messaging between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party. For example, Lowery touted his ability to work with the GOP supermajority in Nashville while at the same time calling out President Trump in TV ads.
Lowery certainly benefited from his late father’s name recognition and many years of public service, but a disciplined campaign that peaked just as voters were beginning to tune in was ultimately the key to victory. That strategy was aided by Birmingham, Alabama-based political consultants VoteShift, who also steered the 2023 campaign of Mayor Paul Young, who won his race with just 27% of the vote.
Lowery will face former Democratic state representative-turned-Republican darling, John DeBerry, in the general election. The state executive committee of the GOP cleared the deck for DeBerry by ousting his challenger, Judge Joe Brown, from the ballot. DeBerry had been working as a special advisor to Governor Bill Lee since he was booted from the primary ballot by the Democratic executive committee for voting too often with Republicans and lost his state House seat. Lee was instrumental in urging him to become the party’s candidate for county mayor.
As I have said on social media and on local television, DeBerry’s challenge is Trump. In a heavily Democratic county, DeBerry cannot win a head-to-head race with Lowery by relying on Republican turnout only. He must coax Democrats and Independents to his side. If DeBerry sides with Trump on issues like ICE in Memphis, the National Guard, and redistricting of Memphis, he solidifies his base but alienates crossover voters. If he rejects Trump’s policies, Republicans stay home or skip the race in large numbers.
Feagins Fatigue
Former Superintendent Dr. Marie Feagins made a respectable 3rd place showing. However, early “confidential” polling that everyone seemed to know about showed Feagins with a substantial lead over the other candidates. This early lead was likely less about popularity and more about the months’ worth of press she received upon being hired, then firing 1000 MSCS workers, then being fired herself after only 9 months. Despite those advantages, I predicted again on social media and
Feagins ingratiated herself with philanthropists Spence and Becky Wilson, who sent a personal letter on her behalf, as well as some Republicans. However, she raised less than $50,000 for a countywide campaign against formidable opposition. Some of that she spent on radio ads on right-wing radio in hopes of gaining Republican crossover votes. An early voting analysis by Stand for Children Tennessee Executive Director Cardell Orrin indicated that the strategy was working to some extent.
Besides her original wrongful termination lawsuit against MSCS, Feagins filed a second suit claiming gender discrimination during the middle of the campaign. Then, right before Election Day, the state legislature passed the school takeover bill, reminding people of the extraordinary level of turmoil in our local schools since Feagins came on the scene. To be clear, the unceremonious and possibly illegal firing of Feagins upset many powerful people in the community. However, most voters could not get their heads around how Feagins could be mayor of the county that funds more than half the school system budget – the same school system she is suing and claiming to desire reinstatement.
Buckner is Butter
Anthony Buckner is the juggernaut in the Sheriff’s race. Any negative surrounding Sheriff Bonner or the condition of 201 Poplar slides off him like cold butter on corn on the cob. The GOP nominee, Brad Less, is a quality candidate, but it is unlikely the party will have the resources to help him take on Buckner, who has garnered the support of some Republicans, like for GOP Chair and former City Councilman Kemp Conrad.
County Clerk Correction
Voters wised up, and LaSonya Hall ran an excellent campaign to become the new County Clerk. She replaces the embattled Wanda Halbert, who was term-limited. Dr. Hall is a career government administrator respected by Democrats and Republicans. I would urge patience as she assesses the condition of the County Clerk’s office and makes changes. Within a year, I would expect a more fiscally sound, customer-oriented operation.
There are too many races and candidates to discuss in one article. A topic for another day soon is the makeup of the Shelby County Commission, which will add 8 new commissioners. This body will have to find a way to work together and with a new mayor to address a new jail, a new Regional One, deferred maintenance for schools, and balance the budget. More to come.