The rush to secure more U.S. House seats for Trump and the GOP through mid-cycle redistricting has consumed much of the news and sparked lawsuits and protests, especially in the South. Of course, a main concern is control of Congress with Republicans holding a razor-thin majority in the House.
It has long been assumed that history combined with poor approval ratings for President Trump would result in Democrats taking control of the House after the 2026 midterms. The only question was by what margin. That was until the Supreme Court decision in Louisiana v. Callais. Now, it is less certain that Democrats will win enough seats to control the House, but what was once thought to be highly unlikely is now a legitimate possibility—Democrats winning the U.S. Senate.
Near record high gas and grocery prices, a lingering Iran War, the Epstein Files saga, and no shortage of scandals have positioned Maine, North Carolina, Alaska, Ohio, and Texas for possible Democratic takeovers. Democrats would need to win 4 seats while holding the current 45 plus 2 Independents who caucus with them to win control.
Maine
Former Marine and oyster farmer, Graham Platner and Maine Governor, Janet Mills were vying for the right to challenge incumbent Republican Susan Collins. However, Mills withdrew from the race citing a lack of funding. Mills had been the preferred choice of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, but Platner’s straightforward style, compelling social media, and progressive policy positions have attracted nationwide attention and campaign dollars. Recent revelations of Platner comments on Reddit from more than a decade ago in which he appears to victim blame women who had been sexually assaulted removed some of the shine from his candidacy. They were not enough to invigorate Mills’ support.
Collins has benefitted from Maine’s independent character and her sometimes maverick streak. However, Collins has been a Trump enabler voting for all of his cabinet appointments with the exception of Kash Patel and Pete Hegseth. Collins voted to advance the “Big Beautiful Bill, then voted against it once the votes to pass it were secured, according to critics. More recently, she voted against a measure to rein in Trump’s war in Iran, then this week voted to put some guardrails around the president’s war powers.
The latest polling from April has Platner leading Collins by 6 percentage points.
North Carolina
Democrats scored big when they recruited popular former governor Roy Cooper to run for the U.S. Senate. Cooper easily won the Democratic primary and so far, has raised approximately $36 million between his campaign and victory committees combined. Challenger Michael Whatley, a former Republican National Committee Chairman has raised $16 million.
Whatley and outside groups are attempting to characterize Cooper as pro-illegal immigration and soft on crime. Cooper is stressing affordability, his bona fides as former Attorney General, and effort to expand Medicaid.
Recent polling has Cooper leading by 9%.
Alaska
Alaska is considered by most pundits to be a “red” state. The “experts” give the edge to incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan. However, Sullivan is being outraised by former Congresswoman Mary Peltola. In the first quarter of 2026, Peltola raised $9 million to Sullivan’s $1.7 million. Sullivan, however, has $7 million in the bank, while Peltola has $6 million. The Democratic Senate Majority PAC confirmed plans this week to reserve $10 million in Alaska television time.
Major issues in the race center on development oil extraction and gold mining projects. Sullivan has been a reliable vote for such projects, while Peltola has walked a finer line, supporting some and rejecting others. Peltola has launched an anti-corruption plank of her platform to root out “crooked” politicians and unrig the system—an effort seen as an appeal to independent voters. The race may ultimately turn on what voters believe about the SAVE Act. Sullivan supports the measure to make voting more restrictive, but his counterpart, Senator Murkowski, has warned that the mail-in voting measures may disenfranchise rural Alaskan voters.
April polling has Peltola up +6.
Ohio
In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat two years ago, is challenging Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the unexpired term of Vice President J.D. Vance. In recent years, Ohio has moved from a swing state to a solid red state, but economic woes in the “Rust Belt” and declining popularity of Trump have made this a competitive race.
Brown has raised $24 million, so far to Husted’s $11 million. Republicans are clearly concerned as Husted has launched a $1.2 million attack ad against Brown blaming him for the border crisis, inflation, and “boys in girls’ sports.” Despite Trump’s declining poll numbers, the ad doubles down on Husted’s support for and from the President.
The latest polling is -3 for Democrats, but the margin of error is +/- 3.5.
Texas
In a social media post a few months back, I predicted that Texas would stay in Republican hands. However, since then the race has shaped up from a strategic standpoint almost perfectly for Democrats. James Talarico, a more moderate and less controversial candidate than Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett won the primary. On the Republican side, neither Ken Paxton not Senator John Cornyn received 50% of the vote, triggering a runoff. The runoff has forced Republicans to spend millions attacking each other while Talarico has been able to fundraise and appeal to Crockett voters and independents. It also appears that Paxton may edge out Cornyn. Paxton is the most conservative and controversial candidate, creating a starker contrast for voters between Talarico and him.
The latest polling has Talarico +7 or +8 against Cornyn or Paxton respectively.
Conclusion
Roughly five and a half months to go before the November midterms is a lifetime in politics. There is time for at least a partial recovery of a disastrous 18 months for the Trump administration. There is time for Democratic candidates to commit major unforced errors. There is time for voters to sour on both candidates in some of these races and to choose to stay home on election day. But Democrats and Americans desiring a change should choose to hold their breaths because November could usher in a gasp of fresh air.